Market Forces

Last week's US quarterly plantings intentions report confirmed lower than expected US corn stocks and helped CBOT corn gain on the week while CBOT wheat lost close to $10. European markets were all down on the week with LIFFE May dropping £3.80/tonne on the week while November lost over £6.00/tonne. May is now at £163.45 (€197) while the new crop is at £151.95 (€183.50). MATIF wheat and corn both lost ground. European crops are doing very well with very good crop ratings coming in for winter crops and good planting progress with spring. No weather threats are evident at this stage and the dry areas of Germany and Poland are due rain this week. The Ukraine crisis has dissipated and exports of wheat and corn from the FSU are running as normal if not ahead. Soya bean harvesting is progressing well in Sth America and last week's US plantings report sent a bullish old crop/bearish new crop message. Old crop stocks are tight but a big harvest is on the cards for both Sth and Nth America, the latter weather permitting. CBOT soya beans gained 2.5% on the week as did meal. The FAO came out with some forecasts last week that put global wheat output in 2013/14 at 716 million tonnes and corn at just over 1 billion tonnes –both records. This Wednesday will bring the April USDA report.


Mike Shields
Trident Ireland







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